I saw a friend recently who sells houses. He's not a shark or even a remotely proficient realtor. I actually don't think he's a realtor but just some glorified, "I'll sell your home for less" kind of guy. He's not having a great year, noting that prices are down overall, as is the quality of the homes for sale.
The collector car market is in much the same place. Average cars are not selling. Average cars that once brought silly money have been trading hands for what they always should have been worth. This 1991 BMW 318is, a driver-quality car with questionable modifications, sold for $20,000 on Bring A Trailer in March 2023. When it reappeared in November of 2024, it sold for $8,000 less, ringing in at $12,000.
The seller was resigned to the fact that he wasn't going to get what he paid; however, who wouldn't say that? The frothiness of the market is pure fiction, hyped up by non-bidders that gin up the action to see an exciting result. They aren't there when you tell your wife you took an $8,000 loss on a car she didn't want you to buy.
Like everything in life, there are kingmakers and there are pawns. The kingmakers set the market so it works to their advantage, and the pawns unwittingly execute the strategy. The collector and hobby car market continues to settle, and the likes of Hagerty and Sports Car Market will tell you it's normal, typical, and all part of the plan. But like the collapse of the housing market and mortgage-backed securities in 2008, one has to wonder if this market - in its own small, unique way - is just as propped up to benefit the 1 percenters like everything else in life.
In the meantime, buy cautiously and don't pay attention to pricing models based in BaT results.