TCG Stories

I spend a lot of time extolling the virtues of a well-prepared classifieds listing. Whether it’s on Bring A Trailer or your local craigslist page, there’s no denying that a car with deep documentation and a clear love of ownership is going to entice buyers out of the woodwork. But like most things in life, there are no guarantees - and, quite simply, the vehicle has to be the kind of car that stirs emotion and signals opportunity.

This recent auction on Bring A Trailer for a 2000 BMW 740i Sport resulted in a no-sale outcome for what looks like one of the best “Sport” trim E38s I’ve seen in a while. The seller had all the boxes checked, including excellent photos, extensive records, and of course, outstanding cosmetic condition. The short-wheelbase 7-Series is a terrific example of a sports sedan, and the seller was counting on a strong result given bidding wrapped up at $28K with the reserve unmet.

The E38 is certainly a respected car in the enthusiast world, with excellent road manners and chassis reflexes that seemingly belong to a much smaller and lither vehicle. Still, it’s safe to say the E38 is not a top 10 vehicle target among enthusiasts in terms of a “must own” list. It’s hardly a legend in the vintage vehicle world. And as far as future collectability goes, it will likely never be worth significantly more than it is now.

Which brings me to my point: for as much prep work as you do to make a car or truck more saleable, don’t forget about the most basic rule there is when it comes time to sell your pride and joy - the rules of attraction. When you are planning to buy a new hobby vehicle, be sure to weigh its desirability among the masses against your own before deciding to add it to your fleet.

“The canary in the coal mine” is one of my favorite expressions. It’s up there with the butterfly effect, which I broadly define as observing otherwise innocuous signals and considering their future implications. The collector car market is in an intriguing place at the moment, with key indicators simultaneously indicating investors are insulated from other market forces while also suggesting some of the results we’ve written about here are potentially inflated.

I don’t claim to be a financial wizard or anything close to an expert, but I do have a good bead on the collector car market, especially for so-called “youngtimer” classics that have heated up big time over the last few years. COVID wrecked many things, including any sense of normalcy in the modern collector car space. Prices for the same model over the course of mere weeks can ricochet to dizzying heights and back down to a disappointing floor, especially when an ambitious seller agrees to list with no reserve.

A startup I like an awful lot called Blue Tail Aero points to similar instability in the bizjet market, as a recent blog post cites industry expert Ascend’s senior appraiser and principal aviation analyst Syed Zaidi. According to Zaidi, “…the surge of new users into the business aircraft market had led to a “60 percent rise in midsize jet values from a year ago and approximately 45 percent higher for very light and super-midsize jets. Long-range jets values increased by 20 percent year-over-year.”

Keyword here: new users. I can’t recall a time where so many consumers were flush with cash and had no idea what they were doing. You see this with collector cars and apparently with private jets as well. When it’s just one sector, it’s easy to tell yourself there’s nothing to see here. But when a trusted source of expertise on the private aircraft market points to similar signs of instability, it’s time to ask yourself if the adults have left the room when it comes to collecting.

The question becomes this: how do you protect yourself and your investments? As Blue Tail explains and as we at The Common Gear have long believed, it comes down to maintenance and building the digital portfolio of the car or plane of choice. If you live in a storm-prone coastal region, investing in hurricane-proof windows is a smart move; if you acquire cars or planes in an uncertain market, investing in maintenance and securely storing your records of improvement can help protect your purchase in the long-run and potentially boost its value.

The Common Gear is the premier destination for securely digitizing your records. Create your free account here today.

For a while now, there’s been speculation that the math doesn’t add up on Bring A Trailer. Incredible sales results for cars that would seemingly struggle to hit those same numbers on the pages of craigslist or eBay have raised eyebrows to the point that the peanut gallery has begun lobbing accusations of money laundering and other primetime crime drama buzzwords.

The most recent display of the zaniness of online auctions has to do with three near-identical examples of the Jaguar Super V8 Portfolio sedan. First, there was the 18,000 miles example that sold for $156,000; it was followed and one-upped by a 2009 model with 24,000 miles for $175,000; and then, in the final act of the Super V8 Portfolio live on Broadway, a 2009 example with 18,000 miles shot back down to Earth and sold for still insane $90,000 (but at least we’re back down in to the five-figure range).

Let’s look at this: two cars, separated by 14 days, and both the same year with the same mileage sell with a swing of $66,000 between the two of them! And not only that, the example with the most miles between the three of them sells for more than either of the other two. This is where the BaT model simply incinerates on re-entry for me as there’s no rational explanation for such a variance between three low-mileage examples of the same model in effectively the same condition.

…..except, of course, that the second bidder was heavily influenced by the decision of the first bidder to exceed the last price for a low-mileage 2009 Super V8 Portfolio (21K miles, October ‘21) by a whopping $112,750! This is what I believe is the underlying reason for so many wonky sales results: bidders don’t bid on logic, but rather on the behaviors of other bidders. As we’ve discussed recently, the big timers can withstand a few losses, but for the medium- or little-guy who gets caught up in the bidding battle, they can find themselves on the losing end of a winning bid when they agree to a price that has no basis on reality; only the feeding frenzy of a competitive online auction.

At some point in the past two years, almost every car enthusiast has looked at a sale price on Bring A Trailer and said, “Wow - I never thought that car would sell for that much cash.” We’ve discussed it here on occasion, and I’ve taken the position that the 1 percent crowd can do as they please with money, even if that means spending more for a particular model than anyone else has in recorded history.

But for those of us of more ordinary means, the stakes are very different. You can’t repeatedly lose your shirt on a car. My friend Rudy Samsel runs an auction website called Guys With Rides that provides a dealer-free marketplace and strives to put a bit of fairness back into the collector vehicle acquisition process. He flagged a 1987 Porsche 944 Turbo as a prime example of the risks of buying an enthusiast vehicle without paying sufficient attention to market valuation and VIN decoding.

The reason he took notice of the car had to do with the fact that the seller was putting the 944 up for grabs himself - not on BaT - within eight months of acquiring it at a price that reflected a loss of over $12,000 when factoring in maintenance costs and the buyer’s premium that BaT charges.

The 944 was labeled as being an elusive Turbo model wearing “Silver Rose” paint when in fact it was a slightly more common Diamond Blue Metallic example. BaT didn’t do much to confirm or deny this, including not requiring the previous owner to include a photo of the trim tag that would quickly put to bed any concerns over whether this was, in fact, a desirable Silver Rose car. To some extent, this is the risk inherent in any sight-unseen purchase done over the internet, but when you factor in buying a car this way along with the tendency to overpay by virtue of the selling platform’s so-called reputation, it can create a perfect storm of unintended consequences for the future owner.

The playing field is not even, unfortunately, on platforms like BaT and numerous others. If you can afford to drop six-figures with the same recklessness as one might spend on great seats at a sporting event, overpaying on a 944 Turbo with unverified history won’t cause you to have a fire-sale a few months later on a car that isn’t what you thought it was. For Joe Six Pack and other “normal” collectors, you may indeed have to encourage a quick sale with a potential loss factored in to get out from under.

No matter your lot in life or how tempting it is to get wild in an internet auction with thousands of virtual cheerleaders, there’s no shame in being cautious and sitting one out when the information required to make an informed decision isn’t provided. The more of us who are only willing to punch the “bid” button with the right information in hand will drive auction sites to ensure data and authenticity drive higher bid prices rather than an internet mob that bears no responsibility when it comes time to sell for a market-correct price.

I remain fixated on the car storage market for a few reasons: one, it is a relatively new arena for the hobby with seemingly more room for competitors and future growth. Two, it is basically taking the standard storage unit model (where you chuck all the excess crap from your house) but applying it to the challenge of maintaining on-site storage for your project car fleet. The actual facility is a glorified warehouse with a shiny wrapper around it that seemingly justifies a premium price for access.

Hagerty has once again raced to the front of this burgeoning business model by claiming territory in a few key geographies (meaning well-capitalized car collectors live there). The newest club is in Miami and looks like a great time: beautiful location, outdoor patios, comfortable social gathering spaces, gearhead-focused décor, and of course, the tropical backdrop of south Florida.

The rate card lists $650/month as the price for car storage and access to the social calendar. For $125, you can leave your car at home and simply have access to the facility and the monthly events. If you look around at your average local car storage lot/facility (meaning, a storage unit at your local UHaul or UHaul-clone), the price is far lower. There’s also no real luxury attached to it and certainly no wine and cheese nights.

The question I struggle with is this: is Hagerty filling those spots easily, or is it a long, slow slog to max out capacity? The monthly fee is not cheap, so you’re certainly a customer of some means if you’re taking Hagerty up on the offer for a premium space with a variety of services on site you may never actually use (detailing, mechanical services, shipping and logistics.) The social component is a take-it-or-leave-it offer for me, as I’d much rather be driving than talking (and last I checked, most Cars & Coffee gatherings are still free to attend.)

However, like the six-figure W124 and Jaguar Super V8 we recently discussed, this is a meaningless amount of money for the super wealthy to consider spending each month for the convenience of a turnkey storage facility catering to other high-end clientele. Which serves as a reminder as to how much of this hobby is being built around the needs of the 1 percent club - and how the rest of us will need to either cough up the dough for a storage experience that is several rungs above the local self-storage facility or find our own way to mimic the Hagerty experience at a lower price point.

This week, we learned that Robert "Bob" Ingram, owner of the Ingram Collection and father to Cam who runs esteemed Porsche shop Road Scholars, had passed away. 

Bob is a well-known figure in the Porsche community, both for sharing his collection with the world and for being a regular fixture at concours events around the country. Numerous Porsches, both those owned by the Ingram Collection and examples restored by Road Scholars, have taken top honors at some of the most celebrated events in the country, from Pebble Beach to Amelia Island. 

Ingram was a highly successful pharmaceutical executive who took his love of Porsches and built it into one of the foremost names in collection management and restoration. From historically-significant track cars to some of the rarest and highly preserved air-cooled models on the planet, it's safe to say the Ingram Collection has been touched by some of the best Porsches in existence.

What I love about Road Scholars and the Ingram approach is the commitment to preserving history, and I don't mean just original body panels and numbers-matching engines (though they certainly make that a priority.) They focus intently on the story of the car - its first owner, and subsequent owners, and how it was used. Frankly, they go over the top in their efforts to uncover as much history as they can, and it's the reason I'm such a fan of the entire operation. 

Bob Ingram is no one one I knew personally, but I certainly understand the passion he had for vintage sports cars - and it seems like his son will carry the torch just fine. 

I've said for a while that we will see a seismic shift in the specialty shop landscape in the coming years as the independent repair facilities that service enthusiast marques will begin to disappear as the owners begin to retire. Like everything else, enthusiasts will increasingly be forced to either give up their cars or begin shipping them to a handful of high-end facilities not necessarily conveniently located. 

This is, admittedly, a prediction at best. But as a small Citroen repair facility in upstate New York goes to show, it's already beginning to happen, with no clear indication that a next-generation owner is waiting in the wings. Dave Burnham Citroen is a well-loved name in the French car universe, and as someone who owned a Peugeot for a brief spell, I had his info saved in case I ever needed to be bailed out of a car that I was deeply afraid of breaking. 

Thankfully, I dumped the 505 Estate, but many other French car enthusiasts are exceedingly loyal to their weapon of choice - but they're intimidated by working on these oddballs, and for good reason. To lose a guy like Dave is to make the deciding whether it's worth keeping a car that has next to no specialist support and a limited parts network. My long-term shop in Rhode Island specializes in German automobiles and shows no immediate signs of slowing down, but the owner is in his early 60s and his brother approaching 70 (and one heart attack already in the books.) It's an incredibly tenuous situation. Fortunately, another European specialist won't be impossible to find should my chosen specialist decide to retire, but it's never the same. How can it be? 

With dealerships showing no interest in supporting older models and a lack of talent coming out of the tech schools that want to work on anything that doesn't involve plugging into an OBD II port, the writing is on the wall. Today, it's Dave Burnham Citroen, which will impact a small number of enthusiasts - but tomorrow, might it be your neighborhood specialist that always gives you a break on parts and can solve problems over the phone? 

We all know that the vintage car market has gone somewhat bonkers as of late, fueled by a period of pandemic premium pricing that, like inflation, has shown little sign of cooling off. In fact, it’s getting increasingly difficult to enter into the collector car marketplace with less than $20,000 to burn in order to find a vehicle you can both own and later sell for a profit.

While it’s certainly not all about making a killing, there is some comfort that comes from knowing your four-wheeled investment isn’t a money-losing proposition. And like everything in life, it takes money to make money, and buying at the sub-$10,000 level doesn’t necessarily guarantee you a significant amount of “flip” potential unless your purchase price is near zero (which can happen.)

So, then - what about a sign? Porcelain signs from the gas stations and factories of yesteryear are commanding very strong money at all of today’s major auctions, which have seemingly added an entire segment of the auction catalog to automobilia. While these venues are challenging to find a deal in, there are numerous off-the-grid farm auctions happening near every weekend if you know where to look.

Miller & Miller’s March 11 auction in Ontario saw a pair of “White Rose” gasoline service station signs sell for a heady $63,130. A Dodge Trucks / DeSoto porcelain neon sign netted the seller a healthy $5,900. A Canadian 1930s Red Indian Gasoline porcelain sign, expected to sell for between $7,000 and $9,000, blasted through its estimate to land at close to $13,000.

While the appeal of vintage garage decor has been known for years, now it’s a potential avenue for enthusiasts to explore as a way to enjoy the hobby and make some money - and just like a well-maintained car, provenance is key when it comes to buying the best and most desirable signage.

My E30 finally felt weak. After years of having it as turnkey, classic driver that could sit idle for months at a time and be pressed into duty at a moment's notice, I had to admit that compared to some of the other vehicles in my fleet, it felt a touch tired. 

The 325is has been with me longer than another car I've ever owned, going back to 2011 or so. I bought it at a time when I needed a distraction, and my brother was a huge influence in buying the car and subsequently bringing it back to life. Once it was a healthy running and driving car, it came back to Rhode Island and was the catalyst for a relationship with a local shop that has now seen many of my project cars pass through its doors.

In looking back at it, I realized I sank quite a bit into this E30 ten years ago now and haven't spent a whole lot on it ever since. It reminded me that I've abandoned the incremental approach to vintage car maintenance, choosing to go all in (or close to all in) early on - suffer that financial pain - and then get years of enjoyment out of it, hopefully not spending a whole lot in the years that follow. 

Check out my maintenance table here on The Common Gear, where you can digitally track your maintenance and build your car portfolio. It reveals exactly what I thought it would, that I went pretty deep into the car in 2013-2014 and have only made modest investments in it ever since. It seems perfectly fair that it may need another dose of servicing after not getting much beyond whatever needed fixing, or some unnecessary service to address a nice-to-have like air conditioning. 

So what do you think: is the big infusion of resources at one time worth the trade-off of several years' worth of enjoyment, or should we invest in vintage cars on a more staggered basis? I don't think there's a wrong answer but I do I like getting to a point of using a car regularly without concerns of an imminent major mechanical failure due to an area of neglect.

If you don't already know, The Common Gear is a passion project of mine to transform how enthusiasts track their maintenance and investments in a hobby or classic car. I've been fanatical about record-keeping with all of my cars, even the ones barely worth the cost of a tank of gas. I like knowing how the car has evolved in my care, and I really enjoy sharing that story with whoever decides to own it after me. 

Of course, as an entrepreneur, you're constantly wondering if you've made a bad bet or if someone else is going to eclipse you. I've seen this in my corporate work life where good ideas are quickly taken by your peers and passed off as their own. It doesn't typically worry me because my community - my local team - knows where those ideas bubbled up from. There are competitors in this space but I'm not terribly worried about them because flashy apps are often created with little thought given to whether there's a community out there that wants to use it. And as one digital auction site has proven, the community you keep matters more than almost anything else. 

Bring a Trailer often gets lauded with praise for being the ultimate auction site. But many of us remember that is not how the platform got started. BaT is a WordPress site that was basically a glorified craigslist blog. There is no app. Yet according to a recent Wall Street Journal article, the digital auction house is now a billion-dollar marketplace. In that same article, one of the well-heeled regular bidders on the site and a current University of Chicago business school professor cites two key reasons for BaT's success: building a community of interest and upending the economics of the auction business. 

And there it is: community. The economics side of it is obvious but it's the social contract that's far harder to create. It's why in-person auctions have always been a thrill for attendees, who go as much to see the cars as to see old friends. Cars & Bids is approaching it from another angle, which is via the following Doug DeMuro has amassed thanks to his YouTube channel where regular "viewers" feel like they're watching a close friend build an auction business. If you didn't see the thousands of congratulatory comments he received when C&B received a sizable investment and he bought his dream car, a Carrera GT, you should. It's powerful stuff. 

For anyone of you reading who knows me personally (or at least feel like you do), I invite you to share your project updates and log your visual records with The Common Gear, or TCG as we call it. We'll keep your data safe and give you a place to go when it's time to sit back and take stock of your project car progress. And when it comes time to sell it, just take your custom URL and drop it into the craigslist ad or the auction listing comments where everyone out there can see first-hand the incredible work you've done. 

The shiny stuff matters, but so do the handshakes, fist bumps, and camaraderie that come standard with enthusiast car ownership.