For a while now, there’s been speculation that the math doesn’t add up on Bring A Trailer. Incredible sales results for cars that would seemingly struggle to hit those same numbers on the pages of craigslist or eBay have raised eyebrows to the point that the peanut gallery has begun lobbing accusations of money laundering and other primetime crime drama buzzwords.
The most recent display of the zaniness of online auctions has to do with three near-identical examples of the Jaguar Super V8 Portfolio sedan. First, there was the 18,000 miles example that sold for $156,000; it was followed and one-upped by a 2009 model with 24,000 miles for $175,000; and then, in the final act of the Super V8 Portfolio live on Broadway, a 2009 example with 18,000 miles shot back down to Earth and sold for still insane $90,000 (but at least we’re back down in to the five-figure range).
Let’s look at this: two cars, separated by 14 days, and both the same year with the same mileage sell with a swing of $66,000 between the two of them! And not only that, the example with the most miles between the three of them sells for more than either of the other two. This is where the BaT model simply incinerates on re-entry for me as there’s no rational explanation for such a variance between three low-mileage examples of the same model in effectively the same condition.
…..except, of course, that the second bidder was heavily influenced by the decision of the first bidder to exceed the last price for a low-mileage 2009 Super V8 Portfolio (21K miles, October ‘21) by a whopping $112,750! This is what I believe is the underlying reason for so many wonky sales results: bidders don’t bid on logic, but rather on the behaviors of other bidders. As we’ve discussed recently, the big timers can withstand a few losses, but for the medium- or little-guy who gets caught up in the bidding battle, they can find themselves on the losing end of a winning bid when they agree to a price that has no basis on reality; only the feeding frenzy of a competitive online auction.