TCG Stories

By: toolbox, 03/08/2022

How High Could Gas Prices Go? Here's What Experts Fear Could Happen

Some experts fear that a ban on Russian oil imports could even lift averages over $5 per gallon

The price of regular gas broke $4 a gallon on Sunday for the first time in nearly 14 years and is now up nearly 50% from a year ago. Monday's national average of $4.104 per gallon broke a record for the all-time high, though that is not adjusted for inflation, according to GasBuddy.

The previous record was set in 2008, when prices averaged $4.103 per gallon. When adjusted for inflation, however, the record price would be equal to about $5.24.

Still, even that's a number some experts fear could be broken.

Gas Prices Are Reaching Record Highs. Here’s How to Get More Miles to the Gallon

What Does a US Ban on Russian Oil Accomplish?

“Americans have never seen gasoline prices this high, nor have we seen the pace of increases so fast and furious. That combination makes this situation all the more remarkable and intense, with crippling sanctions on Russia curbing their flow of oil, leading to the massive spike in the price of all fuels: gasoline, diesel, jet fuel and more,” Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, said in a statement. “It’s a dire situation and won’t improve any time soon. The high prices are likely to stick around for not days or weeks, like they did in 2008, but months. GasBuddy now expects the yearly national average to rise to its highest ever recorded.”

Here's what we know so far and what you can expect:

How high could prices go?

De Haan said "forget the $4 per gallon mark," the nation is actually pushing closer to a national average of $4.50.

“We’ve never been in this situation before, with this level of uncertainty... Americans will be feeling the pain of the rise in prices for quite some time," he said.

According to GasBuddy, prices are expected to continue rising through the summer months, even more than usual. Some forecasts predict the national average could reach $4.25 per gallon by Memorial Day.

Some experts fear that a ban on Russian oil imports could even lift averages over $5 per gallon.

What does the US' ban on Russian oil imports mean for prices?

President Joe Biden announced Tuesday the U.S. will ban all Russian oil imports, toughening the toll on Russia’s economy in retaliation for its invasion of Ukraine, but he acknowledged it will bring costs to Americans, particularly at the gas pump.

He warned that Americans will see rising prices, saying, “Defending freedom is going to cost.”

Biden said it was understandable that prices were rising, but cautioned the U.S. energy industry against “excessive price increases” and exploiting consumers.

“The United States economy can fully handle any of the challenges associated with higher oil prices,” Jason Furman, a Harvard professor and former top economic adviser to President Barack Obama. “But it will bring some challenges. We’re going to have higher prices at the pump, and there’s no way around that.”

The news of the looming U.S. oil ban sent gasoline prices to their highest level ever recorded.

A month ago, oil was selling for about $90 a barrel. Now, prices are surging around $130 a barrel as buyers shun Russian crude. Refiners had already feared being left with oil they couldn't resell if sanctions were imposed.

Energy analysts warn that prices could go as high to $160 or even $200 a barrel if buyers continue shunning Russian crude. That trend could send U.S. gasoline prices past $5 a gallon, a scenario that Biden and other political figures are desperate to avoid.

Where do things stand currently?

The average price for a gallon of gasoline in the U.S. hit a record $4.17 Tuesday, rising by 10 cents in one day, and up 55 cents since last week, according to auto club AAA.

As of Tuesday morning, the average price of gas in Illinois was $4.425, according to numbers from auto club AAA. That's up from $4.304 a day earlier.

While Illinois remains among the highest in the country, several West Coast states are seeing prices even higher. California saw totals of $5.444 and Nevada saw prices at $4.674

What's causing the spike in prices?

Prices at the pump were rising long before Russia invaded Ukraine and have spiraled faster since the start of the war. The U.S. national average for a gallon of gasoline has soared 45 cents a gallon in the past week, according to AAA.

Gas prices have been rising for weeks due to the conflict and in anticipation of potential sanctions on the Russian energy sector.

Even before the U.S. ban many Western energy companies including ExxonMobil and BP moved to cut ties with the Russia and limit imports. Shell, which purchased a shipment of Russian oil this weekend, apologized for the move on Tuesday amid international criticism and pledged to halt further purchases of Russian energy supplies. Preliminary data from the U.S. Energy Department shows imports of Russian crude dropped to zero in the last week in February.

How much oil does the US get from Russia?

The United States is the world's largest oil producer — ahead of Saudi Arabia and Russia — but it is also the biggest oil consumer, and it can't meet that staggering demand with domestic crude alone.

The U.S. imported 245 million barrels of oil from Russia last year — about 8% of all U.S. oil imports — up from 198 million barrels in 2020. That's less than the U.S. gets from Canada or Mexico but more than it imported last year from Saudi Arabia.

The increasingly violent Russian attack on Ukraine has increased calls to cut off Russia from the money it gets from oil and natural gas exports. Europe is heavily dependent on Russian gas.

Talk of a ban on Russian oil has led U.S. officials to consider other sources that are currently limited. In what was supposed to be a secret trip, senior U.S. officials traveled to Venezuela over the weekend to discuss the chance of easing oil sanctions on the major crude-exporting country.

By: Jeff, 03/03/2022

In the summer of 2020, I decided that the '99 BMW M3 convertible I bought was in no way a sufficient replacement for the '95 M3 coupe I lost to headgasket failure and pending first-child arrival. The magic was gone; I knew I lost a special car two years earlier, and no amount of attempts at making up for lost time would replace what had since been built into someone's track toy.

So, in one of the easiest transactions ever, I sold the car in about 24 hours for a respectable amount over what I had into it. The guy who bought it was not my kind of person, and I didn't expect to ever see him again. Save for one time when I passed him in traffic, I haven't. 

Well, John spotted the M3 on Facebook Marketplace tonight, and it's for sure my car. It made me realize there were a bunch of special parts on it I should have kept before selling it, but that's hindsight for you. What's curious is the guy selling it is asking double what I sold it for not even two years earlier. Frankly, more power to him, as I'd be amazed if he got that kind of dough out of what was at best a nice driver example of the drop-top M3 that most purists have little interest in owning. 

Still, I'd be lying if I said I didn't feel a pang of regret at seeing all of the work put into that car and noticing the seller's listing didn't mention a damn thing about the cooling system refresh, the Eibach/H&R suspension, the new rear window in the (very tired and near-death) soft top, and the CD43 headunit. The good news is, however, I feel absolutely no desire to buy it back.  

By: Jeff, 02/28/2022

For years, I've resisted the need to own a Porsche. I just felt like it was too much fan-boyism, you have to own a 911 if you're a true enthusiast nonsense. Plus, they're just overpriced. Parts are expensive. Maintenance is expensive. Everything is expensive. 

So, all of that works against my basic ethos of cheap cars being fun cars, and cheap cars that are cheap to maintain being even funner cars. A vintage car that not only needs frequent attention but also has extremely high parts costs is a total turn-off to someone like me, and to have the prices be elevated by the people who are comfortable paying too much for anything just makes it a non-starter. 

But times are 'a changing, as they say. Specialist shops are getting harder to find, and so are vintage parts. Porsche is one of the few brands that seems committed to keeping its owners and shops stocked up with the needed resources, even if those parts and supplies are sold at staggering prices. 

Those of us who are not already money managers need to find other ways to scare up fun money, and vintage cars are a way to do that (takes some work, but it's possible). Porsches hold their values incredibly well, outpacing most of its nearest competitors from the likes of BMW and Mercedes-Benz. 

All that is to say, if you want to own a marque that will be supported by the long-term and is likely to appreciate over time, a Porsche is hard to fault. A 911 is out of the question for me, but a 968 isn't. It's slightly more special than a 944, and it's got some 928 magic courtesy of the flip-up headlights. My goal now is to sell the Saab and Peugeot to scare up the cash needed to buy a decent 968, and then it's off to the Porsche store for my track jacket. 

By: toolbox, 02/26/2022

Oil changes.  Oil type.  Oil weight.  Hocus-pocus.   Every single auto forum has questions from users about oil; the questions are all over the place and are usually flame-fights between people that have no idea what oil does, and fan-boys/girls of a specific brand or philosophy. 

Regardless of where you stand on the oil argument, check out this YouTube short--  If you subscribe to the reasoning that you don't need to change your modern, long-life, high detergent oil, you may want to reconsider that thought!

By: john, 02/20/2022

Here is an interesting article from Jalopnik who have this great weekly segment on the absurdity (or reality, depending on where you lie) regarding the BaT online marketplace.  

As everyone who lives in the car world knows, BaT has become the de facto space to browse for what's out there, and what's going on.  Yes, it's eye-candy, and a lot of flash.  Yes, it's created cottage industries for out-of-work set designers, and entrepreneurial spirits who are hustling out there to work with sellers and post on their behalf.  Does this make BaT good or evil?  I guess it depends where you stand, and for sure, it's given hours of entertainment, or grief, or both, depending on your level of stakeholder. 

By: Jeff, 02/14/2022

I've long struggled with why I'm hopelessly committed to the 1989 Isuzu Trooper RS project. I've given myself the litmus test a few times of, "Who could I sell this to, quickly?" - and I know exactly who that would be - and every time, I say, "No way." 

At this point, I'm going all the way with this limited-production, short wheelbase truck. A big reason, lately, is that I finally connected with a guy who had become a bit of an urban legend. He owns a small, definitely-off-the-books operation consisting of a one-bay garage and a guy named Nelson who does bodywork for a very, very good price. And he does rust. And since I own two fairly rusty cars, it's really important that I know someone who does this kind of work and doesn't only work at a frame-off restoration shop. 

Needless to say, it has given me some urgency around the other projects. I'm going to kick things off with my Eurovan, which has some rust in the driver's side lower arch behind the front wheel, and then I'd love to have multiple vehicles lined up, ready to go. But before that happens, they need to run, and fairly reliably. Which is why I called the guys working on the Trooper and the 1995 Range Rover LWB at their respective domiciles and raised the stakes: $500 bonuses if they have the trucks running and driving within three months. 

Don't mistake this for some kind of newfound success in my life. It's table stakes. And a HUGE part of these projects working out financially is cheap-but-good bodywork, so they need to be underway on a far more aggressive timeline than what's been demonstrated so far. It may not work, but it's worth a shot. Wish me luck. 

By: Jeff, 02/05/2022

Seriously, I am wondering when the other shoe is going to drop. The 1990 Audi V8 Quattro showed up the other day looking like it had 15,000 miles on the clock rather than 82K (which is still pretty damn low.) The paint is gorgeous; once detailed, it's going to look absolutely incredible. 

The flaws seem nominal at this point, although I haven't driven it out of fear of snapping the timing belt, given there's no record of it being done. There's a burnt-out fog light; the washer fluid reservoir has a leak; the driver's window switch seems glitchy (cost to replace: $7.99). Sadly, the Blaupunkt Sante Fe headunit seems to just be emitting static at this point, but I'm sure my stereo shop can find a solution. 

The car itself is incredibly handsome. It's stoic, even. The vibe it gives off is odd; it's closed-off, keeping secrets. I can't think of a suitable analogy, but definitely, anything that speaks to being too good to be true. The leather is flawless. The tires are new. The wood trim is blemish-free. The sunroof works perfectly. What's wrong with this picture? Why didn't someone else snatch this car up? 

All I can figure is my instincts were correct all along: nobody goes to Bismarck, ND in the winter, especially not for an obscure Audi, and the seller kept the listed price too high for too long to entice anyone to take a chance. Hopefully, once it goes to my shop for the timing belt / tensioner / water pump change and general once-over, my suspicions will be proven correct. 

The Cool IG, YT, Web Embeds

By: Jeff, 03/05/2025

Brief

Over the last few months, Hagerty has re-published an article warning classic and vintage car owners about the propensity for being taken as total suckers by unscrupulous dealers and consigners. At first, I thought - how on Earth could so many people, who were presumably of some means, be taken advantage of so easily? 

One of the biggest scandals in recent months is the implosion of CPR Classics, a highly-regarded Porsche restoration and consignment service that apparently just started straight-up taking people's cars under the pretense of paying them (hilarious!), selling the cars without titles, pocketing the cash, and then just not answering their phones. And very few of the scam victims even bothered to drive over to the shop and see whether their $150,000 911 still existed. Pardon my vulgarity, but WTF? 

And if you really want to get into a rabbit hole about how incestuous the industry is about protecting bad actors and hiding the fact that some fairly intelligent people have been scammed, you should try and click on this link to a 1972 911S that BaT listed on behalf of CPR before being exposed as marketing a car that didn't exist and CPR had no right to sell. If you click that link, does BaT ask you to log in? And then when you do, does the URL take you no where? Yeah, me too - you can get more details here on the Early 911S Registry, which thankfully, hasn't been shut down by BaT. It still appears on Classic.com, but again, BaT has obviously scrubbed the link and gone to great lengths to make sure you don't realize just how little due diligence they actually do.

The 911S that doesn't exist yet appeared on Bring A Trailer

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


 

With friends like that at BaT, how is anyone really safe when you let outside companies who have dealers interests at heart run the show? 

How should you buy a vintage car sight-unseen

As someone who has bought numerous cars sight-unseen from sellers who I just generally trusted, it caused some self-reflection. Basically, I realized I have an informal checklist that is on autopilot in these situations. The steps include:

1.) I'd like multiple angles of photos beyond what was included in your listing. 

2.) I want to talk on the phone, at length, about key history details and potential issues.

3.) I want to dig through any records you have of the car before I commit. 

Now, here's the thing: as a seller, this can feel like a burden. But I always commit to sending a deposit before any of this commences as an act of good faith and for ensuring the seller gets something for their time if I walk. That's only fair. This approach has yet to cause any heartburn on the part of people I'm considering buying a car from, and if I get two out of three - usually multiple phone calls and some photos of the specific areas I asked for (service records are a bonus) - I'm content to move forward. 

According to Hagerty, some people were wiring thousands and thousands of dollars without doing any of this, and being snookered by photos that the scammer simply grabbed from an eBay or Bring A Trailer listing. I never realized it was that easy!

Why a records-driven approach is better for buyers - and sellers

Of course, this is why we provide the solution we do, which is a records-driven approach to car selling. Users can document their work and receipts for as long as they own the car, and then create a for sale listing that sucks all of those records into one easily shareable ad. If an owner is tracking their investment and overall curation of a car, it demonstrates a track record of ownership that is near impossible to fake. And since The Common Gear provides full access control where your records are only visible to the people you agree to share the listing with, it greatly reduces the potential for fakery (as opposed to every Bring a Trailer listing that is still visible years after the car has sold.) 

When you buy a car, it's a commitment on both sides. And while we have all bought the occasional project with zero paper trail for peanuts because, well, who doesn't love a basketcase, that's a very different proposition than spending $20, $30, or $100,000 of your own hard-earned cash on a supposedly well-loved car. 

If we all demand more when we decide to buy an enthusiast vehicle, the ability for scam artists to take advantage of people in this hobby will become far less appealing. 

By: Jeff, 01/04/2025
Brief

Back in the day, you wanted to buy a Porsche from guys named Max Hoffman or Al Holbert. They were known in the community for different reasons; Hoffman was an early Porsche booster who influenced factory decisions from New York, while Holbert was a grassroots racer who rose through the ranks of both the motorsports community and the car business, with his dealership receiving allocations of some of the most sought-after new Porsche models. Literally, car purchasing decisions were made based on the proximity to guys who had close relationships with the factory. 

That afterglow was powerful. It got to a point that people saw it a badge of honor to say they owned a Holbert car. To this day, a Holbert license plate frame will net you several hundred bucks on eBay. However, putting too much faith in a vendor or an enthusiast icon can overshadow what is a rotten car at its core. That recently happened with a Range Rover Classic that sold for $25,000 on Bring A Trailer but popped up on the private market after the sale fell through on BaT.

First of all, the sale didn't proceed because a shill bidder ran up multiple auctions and flaked on more than one. That's a story for another day. The seller, a private party that sells a few times each year on BaT, was connected to a private buyer via someone who I can only assume is a casual broker (there are lots of these popping up in the online auction era.) The broker negotiated a sale for the final bid price for the 1995 Range Rover County Classic SWB of $25,000 and the deal closed seemingly after the no-sale on BaT. 

As the screenshots that accompany this article show, the Rover was delivered with numerous issues, not the least of which was an apparent head gasket failure that caused the truck to run hot once it reached highway speed. Apparently, the seller didn't allow the PPI to include on-the-road driving, only a cold start and whatever operational speed was used to move it in and out of a service station bay. Obviously, this should have been a red flag - but for all but the most pessimistic buyers, the BaT effect can instill confidence that is grounded in nothing other than the prolonged existence of the platform.

"It's been around for years and everyone gets a great price - that must mean I'm getting a great car!" Wrong. The platform has always existed to benefit the seller with all liabilities placed on the buyer. Some of you may be saying, "Well, duh - it doesn't matter how you buy a risky enthusiast vehicles, it's your responsibility to assess its condition" - and I would say you're correct. However, when you buy via a forum or a craigslist ad, there's an awareness that you're on your own. It's up to you to trust your gut and your internal moral compass whether the seller is a decent human being. If you're a novice at this or perhaps typically insulated from vehicle purchases, the comment section on BaT can feel like all the validation you need. 

A few things about this particular truck: one, if you watch the videos, it's pretty obvious the seller is going out of his way to keep the temperature gauge out of view. Every driving video has the frame stopping in the middle of the cluster with the fuel gauge visible, but you can't see the temperature gauge on the left side. Also, there was a bit of foreshadowing via a comment that asked why the overflow tank was empty; the seller responded with a nothingburger answer about the fact that he uses Evans brand coolant. Some potential warning signs, for sure, but if you don't have a sixth sense about things like a seller not allowing for an actual test drive during a PPI, those clues will fly over your head. It reminds me of one of my favorite scenes from The Wire, when Commissioner Burrell reminds his cohorts how ruthless the streets can be: "It's Baltimore, gentlemen. The gods will not save you."

By the same token, a BaT auction does not sterilize your purchase. It can go wrong a thousand different ways. And as the unfortunate buyer of this Range Rover found out when he asked his broker to propose a solution with the seller of a $5,000 refund and he'll go away (well short of the $10,000 -$15,000 in estimated repair costs), the seller responded that he had no money and the proceeds were already spent. 

It's enough to make one wish that we still did our deals with the likes of Hoffman and Holbert. 

 

By: Jeff, 12/22/2024

Brief

Recently, The Common Gear co-founder Jeff Lavery joined his friend Rudy Samsel of Guys with Rides to talk about the state of the collector car market, with a specific focus on the so-called claims of "money laundering" that continue to surround certain cars on auction sites. Check out the latest edition here.

By: Jeff, 10/14/2024

Brief

At some point, you just can't help people. I know I crow about sellers of enthusiast vehicles being unfairly forced into selling at no reserve, but that's really not much different than believing a fat person was forced to get all their nutrition from Dairy Queen. 

You have the right to say no; it's just that you're impatient, or otherwise under the impression that you need to sell your vehicle as quickly as possible, damning the consequences that it may involve in the process. That's the strangest thing about people who complain about the results of their no reserve auction: you literally don't have to sell your car that way. 

There's an odd sense of compulsion that develops among some sellers whereby they decide to roll the dice on a car they absolutely know to be worth more than what the auction house is telling them. I sold my 1995 Audi S6 over the summer for what was probably a very good price, but I still feel content I got a fair deal - especially when you consider how little time I spent actually selling it. I left maybe $1,200 on the table, but it sold in a little over 12 hours. So, let's assume that the addition $1,200 would have required another five days of live selling, talking with buyers, dealing with tire kickers, etc., etc., and you multiple 120 additional hours times my professional hourly rate - well, you're talking about way more than $1,200.

Yes, there's a definite value to selling something quickly, but I also know based on how the Audi presented (bad paint) I would have gotten raked over the coals by the armchair quarterbacks on an internet auction versus a guy showing up and seeing how solid the car was mechanically. At the end of the day, I still managed the transaction myself, on my terms, and likely made more money than a glitzy internet auction would have. 

There's a combination of issues happening: sellers assume that managing the sale themselves will require more time than they think, and they believe the auction houses will get a better price, and faster, than if they did it themselves. There are no guarantees for either of those conditions. 

Put simply, they are being lazy. You don't want to be this guy who got absolutely FLEECED on Hemmings because, I guess, he wanted the car gone before winter. But in looking at the video, he's got quite a bit of space and the Chrysler could have absolutely stayed there a few weeks while he dealt with some in-person meetings. Multiple commenters posted that they would have been interested if they knew the car was for sale. Even if just one of those was legit, he could have likely gotten a better price for his car than agreeing to the Hemmings terms, which again - and I can't state this enough - no one is forcing you to sell your car this way. 

Our platform allows you to be as detailed or as brief as you want, but the smart play is to upload your records or photos documenting maintenance work to drive higher buyer confidence, and justify a higher asking price. Craigslist is gone, Marketplace is a dumpster fire, and The Common Gear is here to help you sell your enthusiast vehicle on your own terms.

By: Jeff, 12/01/2023

Brief

First of all, this is not a Bring a Trailer "hate post." Not at all. What it is serves more as a reminder that the bigger an entity gets, the greater the distance becomes between its intended mission and the people it claims to serve. Pierre Hedary, a noted Mercedes-Benz expert and shop owner, has politely pointed out recently that he's received an influx of customer cars bought on BaT with significant, undisclosed mechanical issues, and for that, he's been called out by the internet flash mob. 

You should watch his latest video here; as usual, Pierre is extremely measured in his response, and does very little (if anything) to fan inflammatory flames. The most hilarious feedback he's received since his original video questioning the BaT effect (Why Bring A Trailer Cars are a Terrible Ideais that he's some sort of closeted liberal, which of course, is the knee-jerk response by anyone who feels personally attacked that their open checkbook lifestyle is risky at best ("Oooh, you dare question my purchasing power, you must be a poor liberal schmuck - please), but beyond that, it's incredible how insecure folks get when someone dares question whether BaT has any integrity whatsoever about the vehicles they sell. 

Listen: buying vintage cars and trucks is inherently risky behavior. Things can go wrong in a big way and you can be upside down in a hurry. That's the roll of the dice we all live with. The problem that Pierre points to is a very simple disconnect between the BaT brand and the buying experience that many real-world folks are having. BaT has, intentionally or otherwise, built a reputation that indicates they have the ability to connect buyers with the best cars and most professional sellers. If you buy on BaT, you avoid the supposed refuse that haws their wares on craigslist and Marketplace. 

The reality is, this simply isn't true. Are there good cars on BaT? Yes. Are there good cars on craigslist? Yes. Are their total shitboxes in both places? Yes to that as well - but if you say it about BaT, be prepared for the pitchforks. 

Many of the loyalists to BaT are the same kinds of folks who would chastise people of a certain political stripe for ardently following an elected official without asking enough questions. The irony is they don't practice what they preach as it relates to buying and selling cars, so many of them are hypocritical at best. To date, I have sold three cars on BaT and have never bought a single one of the eight vehicles I own on their platform. With few exceptions, I have been pleasantly surprised by every vehicle I own, but that's because I'm buying the seller, not the car - and that is a dynamic that's near impossible to create on BaT, where both the seller and the company leadership refuse to stand behind their products once the hammer is down and the wire transfer is complete. 

By: Jeff, 05/19/2023

Brief

Hey everyone - we're excited to share with you the first in a series of instructional videos on how to use The Common Gear to store digitized records of the maintenance and improvements you're making to your collector and vintage-grade cars and trucks. 

One of our primary test users, Lars, has a 1988 BMW 325is he's been logging updates of since he bought the car last summer. From road trips to oil changes, he captures vital details about his car's history that will be useful for his own tracking purposes, or if he decides to sell the car later on. 

Check out the video below for quick overview of how he uses The Common Gear for his own maintenance tracking, and watch this space for more quick instructional videos on how to put The Common Gear to work for you.